A Russian Blog and "25 Cool Demographic Facts"

Just a few comments on the article, Top 25 Cool Demographics Facts by Anatoly Karlin of the  Russian Reaction Blog on The Unz Review.

The article starts off with the “art” depicted above. Titled A short tour and farewell by David Douillet, it is properly French, Secularist, and dehumanizing.

No “miracle of birth” or “pain and joy of life” here!

No “one life, and then the judgement” or “all we do resounds in eternity” either.

just a bunch of dead people from the lower-left – our dead ancestors – to crawling out of some headless dehumanized woman (actually, a skull for a head), then naked youth, naked fun times, naked and aged, then back when you die into the womb of some dead woman, who has a fetus of a head.

“So there is an afterlife: meaningless, judgement-free reincarnation… in some other world’

However repulsive, it does depict the modern European spirit more accurately than anything I can say.

The Secularist dream given form.

But as a depiction of reality, it lacks a certain passion… a fury… a fire.


(1) The world population of Greeks has been steady at ~10 million since the age of Alexander the Great. Their percentage of the world total plummeted from ~5% to slightly more than 0.1% today.

Source: Hansen, Mogens Herman. 2008. “An Update on the Shotgun Method.Greek, Roman and Byzantine Studies 48 (3): 259–86.

The Greeks would have done well to ditch the pleasure principles of the Greeks… and their impoverishing statism. More business, bigger families, less glory of war.

“But why should we number hundreds of millions, like tiny Bangladesh, when we can number 10 million and have a golden age that people are still talking about today?”

People make their choices in life. So do nations.

(2) In 1900, Europe’s population (~400M) was quintuple that of Sub-Saharan Africa’s (~80M).

By 2100, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population (~4B) will be eight times as great as Europe’s (~650M).

Quite the reversal!

Source: Maddison; UN World Population Prospects.

Just look at that 1900 picture of the size of the UK, France and Germany vs. the USA, India, China, Russia, or all of Africa!

Just LOOK AT IT!

And that’s just a fraction of the story! What you can’t see is the centuries of built-up progress, tons of wealth, a tech lead you can’t even imagine.

So much raw dominance… thrown away like so much garbage by 1950.

THANKS, GERMANY!

*With special awards for those murderous liars Darwin, Marx, Freud, and Malthus.”

(3c) At a larger scale, while both Europe and China were at ~100M in Middle Ages, now China has twice as many people, 1.4B to 700M. The advantages of backwardness – delayed fertility transition left more time for population to soar.

Not really a matter of the fertility transition: the Modern Secularist Culture took some time to arrive in China. But never fear: with the results of the one-child policy still ongoing, China will merely age out from a higher base, and is no real threat to Europe anymore.

“Mission Accomplished.”

(6) Were the Turks the big demographic winners of the 20th century?

* 1914: 13.7M Turks vs. 10M Armenians + Greeks (1.3:1) & ~170M in Russian Empire – precarious.

* 2017: 80.8M Turks vs. 13.7M Greeks+Armenians (6:1) & ~150M in RF – secure as never before.

The Turks got in their mass murder in first, avoided socialist stupidity for the most part, and always had a strong religious segment in the population who liked more kids, even at their most secular. Vis-a-vis Europe (barely), the Turkish are big winners for sure!

If the Armenians want to get back in the game, they had better have kids. Doubtful, seeing their wealth and the Orthodox flavour of their religion.

Greeks will be Greeks: intensely European to the end. Which is another way of saying that their lands will be Turkish/Arab/maybe African territory in a few centuries.

(7) The population ratio between Russia and the Ukraine fell from less than 3:1 to almost 5:1 since 1992. It is ironic that Ukrainian independence has been worse for Ukraine’s population balance vis-a-vis Russia than anything that Lazar Kaganovich and the Nazis did.

What actually happened — besides the kleptocracy of the Ukrainian government, and the piss-pore birth rate — is that lots of Russians residing in the newly-alien nation of Ukraine decided to move back to Russia. Many young Ukrainians are fine with emigrating to the more wealthier nations of Europe, or even to Russia – which whom they still share many cultural and personal connections, and enjoy a better economy too!

And isn’t it revolting, to compare voluntary emigration with mass slaughter?

(Well, abortion is a form of slaughter, and is quite common in Ukraine. So I must grant the author that point. Grudgingly.)

(8c) Total population of a hypothetical Russian Empire that also retained Central Asia and the Caucasus, and that hadn’t been bled white by commies, Nazis, and Westernizers during the course of the 20th century, would likely have been not that far off from Dmitry Mendeleev’s 1906 projection of 594 million for 2000.

Actually, I would be looking forward to a 2 billion population British Empire… where a good portion were still white…

(because they would still be obedient Christians: you can’t stop faithful people from being blessed in numbers as well as wealth, and I refuse to even try)

…and quite a good set of interstellar British colonies would be across the inner solar system by 2050, with the first outposts being raised up on the moons of Jupiter and Saturn.

Worlds that will never be.

(9) So far as I can tell, the Latvians, Estonians, and Ashkenazi Jews are the only peoples with fewer people today than in 1914. It is ironic that they played the most disproportionate roles (per capita) in cementing Bolshevism in Russia. God must really hate commies.

Fear God. Shun evil.

Especially blindingly obvious evils, like mass theft, mass murder, mass tyranny, atheism, and man-worshipping some Great Leader.

(10) That said, the Irish have an even more extreme and unique anti-record: There are fewer of them today (~6.6M in all Ireland) than in 1840 (8.5M)! I wonder what they did to anger God so.

No mas murder or oppression here here: they just left for better jobs in America.

People matter.

The individual soul matter.

Even nations and families have some weight on God’s scales.

The (lightly or heavily imprisoned) taxation base of the territory of a ruling bureaucracy?
Not so much.

(11) Communism isn’t always an unmitigated demographic disaster. As @Cicerone973 has discovered, for the first time ever, births in Best Korea (25M) probably overtook South Korea (52M) last year.

(Even if, as Myers argued, Songun/Juche has almost zilch to do with Marxism).

True. Run-of-the-mill idolatry, comprehensive oppression, and emperor-worship – with much of the Marxist economic controls dumped — is kinder to the population than Communist atheism. Observe the history of Imperial Japan for details.

(16) Might appear easy, but demographers often get things wrong.

c.1930, some forecasts had France’s population falling from 40M to 28M by 1970. Instead, France went from having one of Europe’s lowest TFRs to one of highest, and population went to 50M by that year.

Source: Sauvy, Alfred. 1932. “Calculs Démographiques Sur La Population Française Jusqu’en 1980.” Journal de La Société Statistique de Paris 73: 319–47.

God made the world to be inhabited.

Nobody said that it has to be a particular race, though. Ethics and justice is of greater important to Him than your gene set.

18) However, “Breeder” genes are ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian environment. Consequently, it is entirely possible that Europe – which underwent the demographic transition 50-100 years ago – may have higher fertility rates than Africa by 2100.

Source: Collins, Jason, and Lionel Page. 2018. “The Heritability of Fertility Makes World Population Stabilization Unlikely in the Foreseeable Future.” Evolution and Human Behavior: Official Journal of the Human Behavior and Evolution Society, September.

Entirely possible? Yes, I grant that.

Likely? Not a chance. Europe — especially Western Europe — is a dedicated Atheist/Darwinian culture at this point in time, without possibility of internal change or modification.

For it is impossible, in the case of those who have once been enlightened, who have tasted the heavenly gift, and have shared in the Holy Spirit, and have tasted the goodness of the word of God and the powers of the age to come, and then have fallen away, to restore them again to repentance, since they are crucifying once again the Son of God to their own harm and holding him up to contempt. For land that has drunk the rain that often falls on it, and produces a crop useful to those for whose sake it is cultivated, receives a blessing from God. But if it bears thorns and thistles, it is worthless and near to being cursed, and its end is to be burned.

Hebrews 6:4-8 English Standard Version

As there will be no repentance, there is only a need for tastefully-designed tombs for the original inhabitants.

Now, to the real question: can Africa get as atheistic and self-destructive as Europe, after a certain level of wealth and stability is gained?

Again, entirely possible? Yes. Satan loves to kill, and is always looking for a new angle to do so. And there is nothing special in the African gene set that won’t prevent a return to demonism and the failure of magical thinking, say.

Likely? I suspect not, as the Kingdom of God is into growing, not shrinking. There is no all-powerful state in Africa (outside of Eritrea) that can properly oppress the inhabitants, and the place is just too poor for European-scale warfare.

Moreover, technology is now on a decentralizing path, while the killer State needs to centralize power to properly exterminate and enslave its own inhabitants and citizens.

You can’t return to the past. The Greeks (and the picture at the top of this post) is a lie: history does not repeat itself. There is progress, and a better world is being build.

(Slowly, but with less pain over time. Less failure, more success, day by day.)

(19a) Exponential growth can be very powerful. On current trends, Mormons may account for majorities in wide swathes of the rural American West by the early 22nd century.

(19b) There were 31,000 Haremin in Israel and 19,000 Amish in the US in 1952. Today, there are 1,126,000 Haredim in Israel and 343,000 Amish in the US.

If pagan Mormons and Haremin obey the commandment to be fruitful and multiply, while believing Christians refuse to obey the commandment, then it is the Mormons and the Haremin who will reap the rewards.

Believe it!

(22a) Normiecons won’t like this, but generous parental leave & child support appear to be far better than banning abortion & social conservatism so far as promoting higher fertility and disincentivizing dysgenic reproduction patterns goes in First World countries.

(22b) To illustrate the previous point, in the last few years:

* Czech TFR: 1.5-1.7

* Polish TFR: 1.3-1.5

Czechia is Europe’s most atheist country & has highest number of porn stars per capita (but very based on migration). Poland is very holy – but it doesn’t seem to do it much good.

Ah yes, the Free Stuff trap, to build up that tax base.

Somehow, it fails to convince me. And when the Free Money dries up?

Better to earn your own bread, and not be beholden to The Leader and The State.

As for Poland? It isn’t the Leadership or the State that determines if a nation is holy, or even the votes of the electorate. It is the behaviour of the general population.

A disobedient population is not holy, by definition. Regardless of pious words and religious paraphernalia.

Duh.

(23) Twitter demographer @Cicerone973 has been tracking an apparent “baby bust” that has affected nearly the entirety of the developed world since 2015.

There are no good explanations for it. My best guess is that since it is happening to almost everyone, it would probably have to be some recent cultural phenomenon that shifts fertility preferences downwards (or delays them). Tinder?

The enemies of God vanish, leaving the land to those who fear Him.

Just as it should be.

(24) The Imperium of Man in Warhammer 40K has long been in the Age of Malthusian Industrialism.

Think about it.

Every year, billions of Imperial Guards and dozens of planets are lost in wars, to Exterminatus, to democidal robots, bioconstructs, and eldritch abominations. It is also run by superstitious cretins (*blam*). Nonetheless, it doesn’t have any particular demographic problems, new planets always being settled.

And in another fictional universe, Marxism works.

*shrug*

Not that I have anything against fictional universes, per se. But I don’t confuse them with the real world.

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