Coronavirus: The Argument Against Panic

Just to hear both sides of the story:

Worldwide, there have been about 3,400 coronavirus deaths, out of about 100,000 identified cases. Flu, by comparison, grimly reaps about 291,000 to 646,000 annually.

China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began ­declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.

Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in ­every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has ­afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are ­reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates ­ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.

Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think by Michael Fumento

As North noted recently,

If the coronavirus is sufficiently real to justify a massive investment in research, then it threatens to become a severe pandemic. But severe pandemics play themselves out within two years. The greatest pandemic of all time, the bubonic plague of the mid-14th century, played itself out between 1348 and 1350. It came back again and again over the next 400 years, but it never again became a pandemic. By the time we get the vaccine, the pandemic phase will be over.

Breitbart Columnist Goes Full Pelosi by Gary North

The thing is, two years can be a long, long time… if you don’t live in a secure site in the woods, hardly even known of (never mind visited), with a shotgun within easy access.

Old school preppers, who made the time to build friendships among the farmers and the hunters will be OK in such a situation.

As for the rest of us? Work, prepare, pray.

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