Quadratic Infections, Linear Deaths: "Pass me a Coronal!"

From Uncommon Descent: the article Pass me a Corona!

What is going on? I don’t understand the hysteria that is going on. What am I missing?

Let’s get some numbers out there. According to the CDC, from September of last year until the end of February this year, 180 days, 18,000 Americans died of the seasonal flu. Starting with March, we have been on high alert, we have been exercising greater hygiene, and, for the last week, we have been quarantining ourselves and spacing ourselves out (a new meaning to the words “being spaced out”). Yet, the CDC just released new numbers, and, over the last roughly 20 days, 4,000 Americans died of the seasonal flu, while only 140 Americans died of the corona virus. That’s a 30 to 1 ratio, roughly. Now, if “spacing out” helps, then why did the average death rate from the seasonal flu rise from 100/day to 200/day? Anyone have an answer?

Also, if the corona virus is so virulent and contagious, then why were there only 6,300 new cases of corona virus, while, using the yardstick of 0.1% mortality rate, 4 million new cases of the seasonal flu developed?

How about some more numbers?

The P&I (pneumonia and influenza-like-illness) mortality of the average flu is 0.1%. In 2009, the H1N1 “swine flu” was declared a “pandemic,” and a national medical emergency was called here in the U.S. What was the final P&I for the “swine flu”? 0.02% That is, 5 times LESS deadly than the seasonal flu. How many died of the “swine flu” in 2009? 12,469+_. How many died of the seasonal flu in the 2017-2018 flu season? 68,000!! Was there a national emergency? No. Did we “space out”? No. Were our hospitals overrun? No. Did we run out of toilet paper? No.

When is a disease an epidemic? When the CFR (case fatality ratio) is above 7.3% (1 in 14). What is the CFR, worldwide, for the corona virus? Well, roughly, there are 219,000 cases around the presently around the globe, with about 9,000 deaths in total so far. The CFR? 1 in 24. 4.1% So, why is it a pandemic?

Here in the United States, over the last three weeks, 4,000 people have died of the flu virus, while over the last two months, world-wide, only 9,000 have died. What’s going on? What is the CDC thinking? What are our government leaders thinking? How long will the current Draconian measures going to continue?

The CDC botched the “swine flu” contagion back in 2009. But nothing is ever learned. I remember following the numbers back then and thinking there was an overreaction to its virulence; and, there was an overreaction. Final statistics for the “swine flu”: 0.02% P&I!

Some numbers to end with. Yes, Italy’s and Iran’s numbers are at about the 10% P&I level. But, guess what, they have older populations and, as we know so well, the elderly are the most vulnerable. In fact, today I looked at a couple of abstracts on the flu and on epidemics. One abstract concluded that whether a virus is at the epidemic level or whether it is below that level, those over 65, and who have underlying health issues, die at the same percentage levels. That is, even if Italy and Iran are at 10% P&I–above the epidemic percentage (while the rest of the world is below the 7.3% epidemic criteria), this only tells us that we’re dealing with older populations; not that we are dealing with an epidemic or pandemic.

And, so, the final numbers.

During the 2017-2018 flu season, for 16 consecutive weeks, from the week ending on December 23, 2017 until April 7, 2018, the P&I of the seasonal flu was ABOVE epidemic levels! Now, listen to this. Nationally, for 4 consecutive weeks, the P&I of the seasonal flu exceeded 10.0%?, peaking during the week ending January 20, 2018 at a P&I of 10.8%.

Three weeks: 4,000 dead from the flu; 140 dead from the corona virus. And we’re talking trillion dollar stimuli.

Who’s running the country? So much for scientists being scientific.

Here’s the bottom line: If the corona virus was going to be so deadly, we would know by now. Instead, with more and more testing and reportin, the number of cases will skyrocket, while the number of deaths will increase linearly–in line with the number of test being conducted, and then fall.

My prediction: I suspect, from inspecting these numbers, that the CDC will once again end up with egg on its face, with a P&I at, or below, the seasonal flu, a la, the “Swine flu” fiasco. And what suffering in the meantime–psychological and and otherwise.

Please, someone, tell me where I’m going wrong. Or else, pass me a Corona, because I’m old enough to have to stay off the streets.

Pass me a Corona! by PaV

This is the golden key:

Instead, with more and more testing and reportin, the number of cases will skyrocket, while the number of deaths will increase linearly–in line with the number of test being conducted, and then fall.

Quadratic growth of infections, which rise swiftly… and then plateau, then decline.
linear deaths, that slowly go up… and then plateau, then decline.

Follow-up comments by Pav:

Mimus:

Did you read what I wrote closely? Did you read where I said that they did a study showing that you can’t tell the difference between a viral epidemic and the yearly flu when it comes to those 65+ years old with underlying conditions? Italy has this kind of population.

Have you looked at the latest statistics for China? Look here for the numbers. Look at the daily count for new cases and deaths. Over the last week, they’ve almost bottomed out. Yes, you’re going to tell me that we can’t trust their numbers. OK. Let’s throw out China altogether. That leaves Italy with an aging population. It’s at about a 10% P&I. The flu season will end very soon. The seasonal flu from 2017-2018 was running at a P&I of 10% for four consecutive weeks. Are you saying this corona virus is as bad as the seasonal flu? I’ll concede that it might be.

You say that it is obvious that as a contagion spreads the numbers go up. So? Isn’t it also true that the accurate number of cases of someone having the virus also goes up as more testing takes place. So, as we begin to do more testing, more cases will emerge–without having any impact on deaths. Again, this brings the CFR down, and deaths will always be higher at first than testing. Why? Because you don’t know you have a problem until the contagion start spreading and killing people. Again, the swine flu in 2009 was declared a national medical emergency and a pandemic by the WHO. Don’t you think this was because the P&I was high at first? I hope you do, because nothing else makes sense. But they kept testing. And when it was all over, this “pandemic” turned out to be 5 times less deadly than your ordinary seasonal flu. We’re headed for this.

I’m afraid I still need a Corona. So, pass the Corona!

…and…

m not saying this corona virus is a hoax. What I’m questioning are the Draconian measures we’ve taken at the behest of the really smart people at CDC–who got it all wrong 11 years ago, and who never talked about an epidemic two years ago when the seasonal was at epidemic levels for 16 straight weeks. That means the case to death (fatality) ratio was above 7.3% for 16 weeks in a row. It’s now about 2%. And yet we’re in the midst of destroying our economy and putting untold thousands of families in turmoil. Why?

I’m saying the people running the show are not so smart. They haven’t paid attention to the mistakes they’ve made. This is the problem with socialism: the smart people are really dumb. If you want to be successful, your IQ should be around 130-140. Any higher and you have little common sense; any lower, and you’ll be taken advantage of. But when it comes to socialism, it’s the Mensa group that wants to take over. Not always good.

But, no, not a hoax; just a very ordinary corona virus (like the seasona flu) that is, like other flus, deadly to an acceptable level. 2017-2018: 68,000 dead. Five or six weeks of this corona virus: 155 dead. Off by a factor of 400.

…and…

Ed George:

How has Italy been testing their patients? Do we really know if they have this corona virus? Or, is it a combination of this virus and the seasonal cold virus?

Two years ago, when the seasonal flu was at the level it is in Italy for four straight weeks, did we run out of hospitals and respirators? And do respirators really help? The data suggest maybe they don’t.

Here’s an article about how it started, mostly undetected, in Italy. This is the point I’ve been making. Testing for the virus always has to catch up with the virus itself, which has, in the meantime, spead and killed. That means that as people become more careful, and as testing increases and spreads, the number of ‘cases’ of the virus increase while the number of ‘fatalities’ peaks, and then declines. Is that what we’re going to see here? It should be interesting. And I bet we’ll all learn more than the wizards at the CDC.

Look at this website for Italy. Look at the number of deaths per day. It is growing linearly!! Linearly; not geometrically! Do you want to tell me that the virus is also spreading linearly and not geometrically? Put the pieces together.

In the article I linked to above, they say this:

taly’s current national health service, known as Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN), provides free universal care to patients yet remains under-funded. Investments in public healthcare make up only 6.8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is lower than other countries in the European Union including France and Germany.

Maybe this is the reason they’ve run out of beds and respirators: it’s socialized medicine–you know, the kind that all the Democratic candidates are pushing for. Let’s talk to some Canadian citizens about how much they love their system there. Or maybe to the English, who at least have a side-by-side private system to help them. But there have been hardly anything but terror stories coming out of England about their national healthcare system. These are precautionary tales. Will we be like the wizards of the CDC and ignore it when things go wrong? (P.S. the “underfunding” of the healthcare system is otherwise known as “rationing”)

So, for the time being, pass me a Corona!

P.P.S. For those not from Mexico or the States, Corona is a favorite Mexican beer here in the U.S.

…and…

Here’s a topical article.

The message: calm down.

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