(Once again, with feeling!)
As my readers might guess, I feel that the current CORVID-19 epidemic is a real danger, but radically exaggerated. I respect the social distancing and quarantine requirements, but I’m quite certain that the economic damage caused by the frantic reaction to the disease will be vastly more damaging than the actual deaths from the disease.
And I have increasing doubts that the total number of deaths, worldwide, will even cross the million mark.
If you want something to be really frightened about, consider the original killer flu, the Spanish Flu (a.k.a. the 1918 coronavirus epidemic.)
That old murderer infected about 25% of the world population at the time (500 million), and the death estimates range from 17 million to 50 million, with the highest estimates up to 100 million.
So, if you take an infection rate of 25% (from 500 million of 1918-20), and a fatality rate of the infected at 10% (from the 50 million dead of 1918-20), and plug in today’s world population of 7.9 billion, you get:
- Infections: 1,975.0 million
- Deaths: 197.5 million
…or, about 2.5% of the world’s population dying during the plague, assuming the hypothetical “Spanish Flu II” epidemic lasts the usual two years.
Note that the real Spanish Flu lasted three full years: from January 1918 to December 1920.
That is what worries me. Not today’s puffed-up epidemic, but the big boy waiting in the dark, biding its time as our population gets older and our health care systems gets more weaker, more overloaded, and eventually suffers massive funding cuts as our bankrupt welfare state buckles and crashes.
And, just as the Idol of the Welfare-Healer State falls apart, steps in the Killer with a Smile… and a very long hit list.
I might as well start praying, from today, that the young will continue to be spared.
The future must be protected.