From Pass Me a Corona, II
The distinction between dying ‘with’ COVID-19 and dying ‘due to’ COVID-19 is not just splitting hairs. Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for two years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for COVID-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). COVID-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths.
Next, what about the deaths? Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)
From: Pass Me a Corona II, Uncommon Descent
Not to the press, admittedly. They just want more eyeballs, more clicks.
But if you want to know what is really going on, you are going to have to do some digging.
Today, Fauci is quoted as saying that the number of deaths he expects from CoVid-19 is between 100,000 and 200,000. No way that is going to happen. Are the blind leading the blind?
Here’s a fresh perspective on numbers:
Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.</blockquote. Let’s note that 0.08% is less than the mortality of seasonal flu. That’s how this entire thread started. Is the Deep State at work again?
This thread began on March 18th. Total number dead on that date: 150. Twelve days later–almost two weeks, the number is 2613. So, 2,470 people died in an almost two week period.
And how many have died of seasonal flu since Feb 28th? 4,000–as of March 19th.
We’re being had.
From: Pass Me a Corona II, Uncommon Descent
We’ll see. For now, I recommend that we continue to do the social distancing thing, and put up with the lockdowns.
And we’ll see how the numbers look, as time goes on.
Hit the Weak, Protect the Powerful
On the New York Times hit-piece on evangelicals, Egnor writes at Evolution News
It’s reprehensible for Stewart to write, and the New York Times to publish, a partisan political hit using the pretext of the pandemic. There have been misjudgments galore on COVID-19, and those of secular experts and government officials are far more pervasive and deadlier than those of (a few) pastors and Christian politicians. Why were our borders for so long open to individuals traveling from Wuhan and regions afflicted with this pandemic? What did the CDC do to prevent this scourge? Our scientific experts knew in November that this deadly virus was raging in China. Did they recommend a travel ban on individuals likely to be infected? Did they recommend preparation for the necessary medical response? What exactly did they know, when did they know it, and what did they do about it?
So the Court Propagandists push a narrative that distracts from the failures of the politically powerful (and their bureaucracies), and points to some powerless political enemies as The Source of All Our Problems.
Lord, these people never change, do they?
COVID-19 didn’t arise from a Baptist church barbecue in Alabama. It’s (another) wholly secular Chernobyl. Anti-Christian bigots like Katherine Stewart use this crisis to misrepresent the real incompetence and corruption that unleashed this plague on the world. The cause of this crisis is secular, and it is a secular scientific culture notably free of evangelicals. We need to be honest about where and how this pandemic arose, and it is reprehensible to blame it on evangelicals who are on the front lines of the battle against this plague. There are tens of millions of evangelical Americans — nurses and aides and doctors and truck drivers and stock boys and workers with myriad skills who daily risk their lives providing food and services and health care in the eye of this pandemic, and for whom their Christian faith is an indispensable source of strength.
Evangelicals didn’t cause this plague, and we desperately need the courage and wisdom that evangelicals have always brought to bear against pandemics. Millions of evangelicals work as we speak to save lives, and they deserve better than this slander. We would be wise, when this crisis subsides, to look closely at the real ideological and scientific “consensus” — a wholly secular consensus — that inflicted this misery on humanity.
All those uppity Christians will have to be squeezed out of any position of influence, in media, scientific, medical, legal, or political, so far as Our Betters concerned.
I don’t think that they will be able to reach their goals… but that’s because the Secularist State will get bankrupt before it can completely secure its goal, and NOT because of the (laughably weak) level of Christian resistance to whatever arbitrary dictates our Masters demand.