Typically, the African-American vote strongly favours a Democratic candidate. In 2016 for instance, only 8% of the Black vote went to Trump.
But in a recent Rasmussen poll (which is known to lean conservative) a full 49% of likely Black voters approved of Trump’s performance. This follows data that already shocked the pundits last year that put this figure at around 34%. If accurate, these signs point towards a building momentum of Black support behind the incumbent President.
Given that Donald Trump has often been labelled a “racist” by his detractors—particularly in the post-George Floyd era—this is a remarkable set of circumstances.
Portrayals of Trump as an enemy of minorities and an ally of white supremacists has not been lacking. What is dwindling, however, is the number of minorities who are ready to believe that characterisation.
The Blexit foundation—a movement of Black Americans exiting the Democratic party—is a possible harbinger of what is to come in November. With much less visibility than the Black Lives Matter movement, it nonetheless has a clear message.
Founder Candace Owens explains that while Martin Luther King Jr. dreamed of a society where people were judged by their character rather than their skin colour,
“We now live in a society where the left says people should only be judged by the color of skin. If you’re black, you must be underprivileged. If you’re white, you must have white privilege.”
Owens explains that Blexit is “not a call to leave the left and run to the right. It’s a call to people to think independently.” Other big names in this movement include Brandon Tatum, Larry Elder and Carol Swain, whose stories appear in the wildly popular Uncle Tom documentary.
While elections can be tough to predict, 2020 may yet be the year of the American Black conservative.
Whatever happens between now and November, don’t pay too much attention to the polls: they’ve been wrong before.Ignore the polls: Black America may yet carry Trump to victory by Kurt Mahlburg
I strongly doubt it, though. For many, unemployment benefits will start running out in October, and the $600 government checks have been stopped.
Black or white, people vote with their checkbooks, and those checkbooks won’t be happy in November.
I suspect that the window for Trump to get re-elected closed in March, when he didn’t stand against his advisors regarding the shutdown of the economy. Laissez-faire was the right policy, the road he did not take.
Hat tip: North, Are We in a Depression?