All too often, researchers and journalists end up relying on “clearance rates,” which are the rate at which police make arrests for reported crimes and turn arrested suspects over to prosecutors. In some cases, the police may be said to have “cleared” a case when a suspect dies before he can be arrested or if the police have determined the case has been resolved in some other way. Police agencies themselves often publish this information, and these numbers can be easily manipulated, because the police determine if a case has been resolved based on their own judgment about a suspect whose guilt has never been proven.
Thus, more adroit readers will immediately begin to see some of the problems with using clearance rates as a measure of police effectiveness. Just because the police make an arrest doesn’t mean they’ve caught the guilty party. Just because police make an arrest doesn’t mean the police have collected enough evidence to lead to a verdict of guilt.
Moreover, clearance rates rarely attempt to take into account crimes that occur but are never reported to police. (These numbers are certainly not negligible.)
Yet even when using this clearance data published by the police themselves, we’re left with a picture of police mediocrity where fewer than half of violent crimes lead to any sort of satisfactory resolution.
But new research from University of Utah legal scholar Shima Baradaran Baughman suggests that even these traditional clearance rate–based numbers of police “success” are actually much too high. If we measure police effectiveness considering “the overwhelming number of crimes not reported to police, individuals who are apprehended but not turned over to prosecutors, [and] crimes resolved without arrest through alternative means,” the numbers look very different. Taking factors outside the usual clearance rate data into account, Baughman concludes “police are ineffective at solving major crimes [and] police are much less effective than we might think at solving all major crimes, and have not significantly improved in the last thirty years.”1Despite Big Budgets, Police Are Catching Very Few Real Criminals by Ryan McMaken
People think that big police budgets will provide protection.
They don’t: at least, not compared to expenses paid.
A lawful citizenry – or, failing that, cameras watching people and merchandise – does a better job.
Or even rent-a-cops.
But these are only reported crimes. Surveys, on the other hand, have long suggested that it is common for victims to not report crimes to police. And in many cases—35 to 40 percent of the time— victims fail to report crimes to police precisely because “they believed that police would not or could not help.”3
It is estimated, for instance, that while the overwhelming majority of homicides are reported through official channels, only 17 percent of rapes were reported in 2018, and fewer than half of robberies were reported to authorities.
Once these “known crimes” are included, we find police clearance rates are far lower:
Starting in 1990, the overall true percent of crimes cleared was 10.03%. In 1998, the true percent cleared was 7.92. For 2004 and 2006, the overall true percent cleared was 9.26% and 9.19% respectively. For 2009, police improved clearance to 12.10% of overall crimes, and in 2014 it was 11.71%. Finally, in 2018 the overall true percent cleared went back down to 10.61%. Overall, true clearance rates in the last thirty years remained around 10%.
Conviction rates are even worse. When examining the total number of convictions against the total number of known crimes, Baughman finds:
The true conviction rate was 1.65% in 1990, 1.35% in 1998, 1.81% in 2004, and 1.95% in 2006. That is to say that the conviction rate for the major crimes in these sample years is less than 2% per year.4
This “true conviction rate” was by far the highest for homicide: 59 percent. But from there, convictions drop off precipitously. Only 12 percent of rapes and only 7 percent of aggravated assaults led to convictions.Despite Big Budgets, Police Are Catching Very Few Real Criminals by Ryan McMaken
Taxpayers will continue to get ripped off, until they decide to compare expenses with results.. and have a free market baseline, to make the comparison with.
That’s more likely than before, with the “defund the police” movement – and, hopefully, it’s replacement with accountable, private security firms that can’t claim the King’s X to sidestep/avoid/ignore all responsibility.
But it’s still going to take a while: probably after the Great Default, and as money gets really tight.
(And, I bet, it will be Progressives looking for votes from the lower classes that will spearhead this movement. Not security-seeking, keep-things-the-same Conservatives.)