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—<Quote below is from
Federal Reserve Induced Inflation Has Resulted in Collapsed US Births…Twice>—
Total US births are collapsing and likely to continue falling significantly further over the coming decade(s). However, this isn’t our first rodeo…as total births collapsed during the 1960’s ’til early ’80’s…almost inexplicably against a fast growing childbearing population. And now, since 2007 (and not just a C-virus one off), total births have again collapsed against a growing childbearing population. I will make the case that much of this comes back to the Federal Reserve’s policies to foment stagflation/inflation which have created the birth dearth(s). Young adults (potential parents), like the canary in the coalmine, are among the most economically vulnerable to the Fed fueled asset inflation (with lagging pay increases and little to no assets riding the bubble, at least partially offsetting the rising costs of living). Their determination to delay marriage and children is the ultimate barometer of the US economic wellbeing.
In order to achieve financial strength / independence, the number of women getting secondary educations has soared. As of 2019, a greater percentage of females (36.6%) have four-year or greater college degrees than males (35.4%)…compare that to the pre-war situation of 1940, with 3.8% & 5.5%, respectively. Obviously, the 4+ years of education plus the associated soaring student loan debt has pushed marriage, homeownership, and children to the latest on record.
The average age that a female first marries has soared from 20 in the 1950’s to somewhere beyond 28 years old in 2021. Consider…
-The average age of a mother at first childbirth is now over 26 years old
-The average age of a married mother at first childbirth is now over 29 years old…versus unmarried mothers closer to 24.
-Women with a college education (heavily impacting financial capability of supporting a family) are now approaching 31 years of age before first childbirth versus 24 w/out a college degree.
It’s also important to note that the decline in births is not due to abortion. Total abortions and abortions to live-birth ratio continue to decline from the 1980’s, early 90’s peak. Total abortions are down 50% since peak, and abortion to live-birth ratio is at record low levels since Roe v. Wade in 1973. Still, as of 2018, abortion to live-birth ratio was 189 abortions per 1000 live births…still significant (& massively contentious), but my point is it is a decelerating impact on total births.
From 2009 through 2020, there were 6.6 million fewer births (-12.5%) in the US (regardless legal/illegal status of the parents) than the Census projected there would be, in both it’s 2000 and 2008 projections. Given the flat childbearing female population, soaring average age at first marriage, and collapsing fertility rates, I’m projecting nearly 15 million fewer births (-30%) over the next decade than the ’00/’08 Census projections.
So What? Ultimately, the most inflationary thing in an economy is population growth and family formation. But the Fed’s policies, although advocating inflation via substituting currency dilution, interest rate mismanagement, quantitative easing, etc., is actually the basis of long term deflation. The merits of a financial system requiring infinite growth against an economic system meant to supply the finite needs of a population (with little to no population growth) should have been debated long ago. Now the economic system is being poked and prodded with stimulus, ZIRP, QE, untold leverage, etc. to synthetically produce growth for a financial system that can be called nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. The faster the substitution of these synthetic proxies (and their asset inflation impacts), the faster the decline in births will be. All of the trends in place to push births lower are accelerating. Whether this is intentional or de facto, I can’t say…but the outcome of collapsing US (and worldwide) births is clear.
The synthetic production of growth – most definitely including the puffing of the stock & housing markets – is great for the 1%, but only harms the average family, and the nation as a whole.
Nobody cares, so long as the welfare treats continues to flow, and calm the dogs right down: white and black, old and young.
Watch out when the treats are gone, and only sticks are left.
—<Quote below is from Global Depopulation – Two paths, One Destination>—
It would appear that the seven decades of global reserve currency management coinciding with the unprecedented downturn in fertility, births, and population growth are highly correlated. The power to artificially determine interest rates, rather than trust in a free market, has reverberations throughout business, finance, and economics. But interest rate policy also seems to have guided birth rates and ultimately the population of this planet. Like most things, I doubt the Federal Reserve would even dignify this with a comment or discussion…but the data suggesting the Federal Reserve (BoJ, ECB, BoE, etc.) has, is, and will likely continue to be guiding depopulation (in like goal to China…but differing in method), while simultaneously choosing winners/losers for decades to come, seems fairly compelling.
I expect the Economic & State Policy for Enduring Stability (a.k.a. killing the future, stopping undesirable — preferably, any — change) will continue, until there aren’t enough loyal young men to staff the police and military and maintain control over the expanding Silence Zones.
In a depopulating world, I’d peg this point at around a generation after the Great Default, and the end of the Welfare State. If you peg the Default at 2030, the end of even a defendable pretense of centralized control would be at about 2070.
Finally, here’s how this plays out regarding the most fundamental of human needs…shelter or housing…plus I’ll stretch out to the 15-64yr/old population and employed among them versus annual housing starts and the Federal Funds Rate (%). The Federal Reserve purchasing of MBS / QE has artificially pushed mortgage rates to record lows to induce an artificial housing frenzy amid a secular turn to outright declining potential buyers and soaring quantity of potential sellers (elderly who already own homes). If I didn’t know better, I’d think the Fed hates young adults and is setting them up to be the bag holder of an awful oversupply of very expensive housing when the bottom invariably falls out…again.
Some say these are the seeds of the second American revolution as a class of unelected, undemocratic central bankers enrich a tiny majority at the expense of the majority…but I just like making colorful charts.
It’s deeply unlikely that there will be any second American revolution: at least, any violent, dramatic one that will be great for the cameras.
Instead, in a rapidly depopulating world where the welfare state (and the warfare state!) has been dead and gone for ages – along with most or all of the value of the US Dollar – people will merely walk away.
The commands of the remote and irrelevant Imperial Capital will simply be ignored.